Professor Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke: List of publications

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Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

The empire project: trade policy in interwar Canada

May 2023

Working paper

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

This paper uses a new dataset on the universe of Canadian imports and tariffs between 1924 and 1936, disaggregated into 1697 goods originating in 112 countries, to analyze the impact on Canadian imports of interwar Canadian trade policy, including the 1932 Ottawa trade agreements. Rather than use a dummy variable approach, we compute the impact of individual tariffs which varied substantially across goods, trade partners, and time. We develop a novel method of controlling for multilateral resistances in the context of a one-country dataset, and perform a variety of counterfactual exercises to determine the impact of tariffs on trade flows. The overall impact of post-1929 tar iff shifts, including the 1932 agreements, was relatively small, reflecting the fact that Canadian trade policy was already highly protectionist: trade agreements can have het erogenous effects on participants because the shocks involved are different. Compared with a free trade counterfactual, the impact of the overall structure of protection on the level and composition of trade was large.

multilateral resistances, trade agreements, trade elasticities, interwar tariffs, empire, trade policy, Canada

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

Should history change the way we think about populism?

April 2023

Working paper

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

This paper asks whether history should change the way in which economists and economic historians think about populism. We use Müller’s definition, according to which populism is ‘an exclusionary form of identity politics, which is why it poses a threat to democracy’. We make three historical arguments. First, late 19th century US Populists were not populist. Second, there is no necessary relationship between populism and anti-globalization sentiment. Third, economists have sometimes been on the wrong side of important policy debates involving opponents rightly or wrongly described as populist. History encourages us to avoid an overly simplistic view of populism and its correlates.

economists, globalization, populism

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

The last free traders? Interwar trade policy in the Netherlands and Netherlands East Indies

April 2023

Working paper

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

Coal and the European Industrial Revolution

April 2021

Scholarly edition

38 Economics, 3801 Applied Economics

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

Four great Asian trade collapses

April 2021

Working paper

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

This paper introduces a new dataset of commodity-specific, bilateral import data for four large Asian economies in the interwar period: China, the Dutch East Indies, India, and Japan. It uses these data to describe the interwar trade collapses in the economies concerned. These resembled the post-2008 Great Trade Collapse in some respects but not in others: they occurred along the intensive margin, imports of cars were particularly badly affected, and imports of durable goods fell by more than those of non-durables, except in China and India which were rapidly industrializing. On the other hand the import declines were geographically imbalanced, while prices were more important than quantities in driving the overall collapse.

protection, trade collapses, interwar economy

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

The impact of interwar protection: evidence from India

May 2020

Working paper

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

Research on the quantitative impact of interwar protection on trade flows remains scarce, and much of it has concluded that the impact was surprisingly small. In this paper we ask: Did Indian interwar protection hurt UK manufacturers, by raising tariffs on manufactured imports? Or did it favour UK interests, by discriminating against "foreign" (i.e. non British) producers? We answer this question by quantifying the impact of trade policy on the value and composition of Indian imports, using novel disaggregated data on both trade policies and imports for 114 commodity categories coming from 42 countries. Indian trade elasticities were generally larger than those in the United Kingdom at the same time. We find that even though Indian protection lowered total imports, it substantially boosted imports from the UK. Trade policy had a big impact on trade flows.

Economic history and contemporary challenges to globalization

April 2019

Journal article

Journal of Economic History

The article surveys three economic history literatures that can speak to contemporary challenges to globalization: the literature on the anti-globalization backlash of the nineteenth century, focused largely on trade and migration; the literature on the Great Depression, focused largely on capital flows, the gold standard, and protectionism; and the literature on trade and warfare.

Trade, Technology, and the Great Divergence

April 2019

Journal article

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

Economic history and contemporary challenges to globalization

December 2018

Working paper

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

The paper surveys three economic history literatures that can speak to contemporary challenges to globalization: the literature on the anti-globalization backlash of the nineteenth century, focused largely on trade and migration; the literature on the Great Depression, focused largely on capital flows, the gold standard, and protectionism; and the literature on trade and warfare.

deglobalization, globalization

The anatomy of a trade collapse: the UK, 1929–1933

November 2018

Journal article

European Review of Economic History

A recent literature explores the nature and causes of the 2008–2009 collapse in international trade. The decline was particularly great for automobiles and industrial supplies; it occurred largely along the intensive margin; quantities fell by more than prices; and prices fell less for differentiated products. Do these “stylized facts” hold for all trade collapses? This paper uses detailed, commodity-specific information on UK imports between 1929 and 1933 to compare the Great Depression and the Great Recession. It also compares the free trading collapse of 1929–1931 with the protectionist collapse of 1931–1933, to examine the relative importance of protection for the UK trade patterns.

Varieties of Backlash

June 2018

Journal article

Annals of the Fondazione Luigi Einaudi

This essay reviews the various types of anti-globalization backlash that have arisen over the course of the last two centuries, and discusses ways in which governments can help the international trading system to withstand such shocks.

When Britain turned inward: The impact of Interwar British protection

February 2018

Journal article

American Economic Review

International trade collapsed, and also became much less multi-lateral, during the 1930s. Previous studies, looking at aggregate trade flows, have argued that trade policies had relatively little to do with either phenomenon. Using a new dataset incorporating highly disaggregated information on the UK's imports and trade policies, we find that while conventional wisdom is correct regarding the impact of trade policy on the total value of British imports, discriminatory trade policies can explain the majority of Britain's shift towards Imperial imports in the 1930s.

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

The anatomy of a trade collapse: the UK, 1929-33

January 2018

Working paper

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

A recent literature explores the nature and causes of the collapse in international trade during 2008 and 2009. The decline was particularly great for automobiles and industrial supplies; it occurred largely along the intensive margin; quantities fell by more than prices; and prices fell less for differentiated products. Do these stylised facts apply to trade collapses more generally? This paper uses detailed, commodity specific information on UK imports between 1929 and 1933, to see to what extent the trade collapses of the Great Depression and Great Recession resembled each other. It also compares the free trading trade collapse of 1929-31 with the protectionist collapse of 1931-3, to see to what extent protection, and gradual recovery from the Great Depression, mattered for UK trade patterns.

protectionism, Great Depression, trade, Great Recession

Two great trade collapses: the interwar period and great recession compared

January 2018

Journal article

IMF Economic Review

In this paper, I offer some preliminary comparisons between the trade collapses of the Great Depression and Great Recession. The commodity composition of the two trade collapses was quite similar, but the latter collapse was much sharper due to the spread of manufacturing across the globe during the intervening period. The increasing importance of manufacturing also meant that the trade collapse was more geographically balanced in the later episode. Protectionism was much more severe during the 1930s than after 2008, and in the UK case at least helped to skew the direction of trade away from multilateralism and towards Empire. This had dangerous political consequences.

The anatomy of a trade collapse: The UK, 1929-33

January 2018

Journal article

A recent literature explores the nature and causes of the collapse in international trade during 2008 and 2009. The decline was particularly great for automobiles and industrial supplies; it occurred largely along the intensive margin; quantities fell by more than prices; and prices fell less for differentiated products. Do these stylised facts apply to trade collapses more generally? This paper uses detailed, commodityspecific information on UK imports between 1929 and 1933, to see to what extent the trade collapses of the Great Depression and Great Recession resembled each other. It also compares the free trading trade collapse of 1929-31 with the protectionist collapse of 1931-3, to see to what extent protection, and gradual recovery from the Great Depression, mattered for UK trade patterns.

F14, N70, N74, Great Depression, Great Recession, trade, protectionism

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

Independent Ireland in comparative perspective

December 2017

Working paper

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

This paper surveys independent Ireland's economic policies and performance. It has three main messages. First, the economic history of post-independence Ireland was not particularly unusual. Very often, things that were happening in Ireland were happening elsewhere as well. Second, for a long time we were hampered by an excessive dependence on a poorly performing UK economy. And third, EC membership in 1973, and the Single Market programme of the late 1980s and early 1990s, were absolutely crucial for us. Irish independence and EU membership have complemented each other, rather than being in conflict: each was required to give full effect to the other. Irish independence would not have worked as well for us as it did without the EU; and the EU would not have worked as well for us as it did without political independence.

economic history, trade policies, Ireland, growth, Brexit

Thoughts on Catalonia

December 2017

Journal article

Critical Quarterly

47 Language, Communication and Culture, 4702 Cultural Studies, 4705 Literary Studies

Growth, import dependence, and war

November 2017

Journal article

Economic Journal

Theories of war predict that the leader may launch a war on a follower who is catching up, since the follower cannot commit to not use their increased power in the future. But it was Japan who attacked the West in 1941: both leaders and followers start wars. Similarly, many have argued that trade makes war less likely, yet the First World War erupted at a time of unprecedented globalisation. We develop a model of trade and war that can explain both observations. Dependence on imports can lead followers to attack leaders or resource‐rich regions when they are subject to blockade.

Growth, Import Dependence, and War

November 2017

Scholarly edition

38 Economics, 3801 Applied Economics, 3802 Econometrics, 3803 Economic Theory

Independent Ireland in comparative perspective

November 2017

Journal article

Irish Economic and Social History

This article surveys independent Ireland’s economic policies and performance. It has three main messages. First, the economic history of post-independence Ireland was not particularly unusual. Very often, things that were happening in Ireland were happening elsewhere as well. Second, for a long time, we were hampered by an excessive dependence on a poorly performing UK economy. And third, EC membership in 1973 and the single market programme of the late 1980s and early 1990s were absolutely crucial for us. Irish independence and European Union (EU) membership have complemented each other, rather than being in conflict: Each was required to give full effect to the other. Irish independence would not have worked as well for us as it did without the EU; and the EU would not have worked as well for us as it did without political independence.

European integration, economic growth, Irish history , comparative history

Two Great Trade Collapses: The Interwar Period & Great Recession Compared

September 2017

Journal article

Preliminary version of a paper prepared for IMF-BNM-IMFER Conference on Globalization in the Aftermath of the Crisis and the IMF Economic Review. The research on which this paper is based was in part funded by the European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) / ERC grant agreement no. 249546. The paper draws on many collaborations, and I am extremely grateful to my co-authors: Miguel Almunia, Agustin Bénétrix, Roberto Bonfatti, Alan de Bromhead, Barry Eichengreen, Alan Fernihough, Ronald Findlay, William Hynes, David Jacks, Markus Lampe, Gisela Rua, and Jeffrey Williamson. The usual disclaimer applies.

Measuring the Spread of Modern Manufacturing to the Poor Periphery

March 2017

Chapter

The Spread of Modern Industry to the Periphery Since 1871

This volume fills this gap by providing a systematic, comparative, historical account of the spread of modern manufacturing beyond its traditional heartland, to Southern and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Asia, Africa, and Latin America, ...

Business & Economics

When Britain turned inward: Protection and the shift towards Empire in interwar Britain

February 2017

Scholarly edition

Abstract International trade became much less multilateral during the 1930s. Previous studies, looking at aggregate trade flows, have argued that discriminatory trade policies had comparatively little to do with this. Using highly disaggregated information on the UK’s imports and trade policies, we find that policy can explain the majority of Britain’s shift towards Imperial imports in the 1930s. Trade policy mattered, a lot.

F13, F14, N74, trade policy, interwar period

The Spread of Modern Industry to the Periphery since 1870

February 2017

Book

Ever since the Industrial Revolution of the late-eighteenth and early-nineteenth centuries, industrialization has been the key to modern economic growth. The fact that modern industry originated in Britain, and spread initially to north-western Europe and North America, implied a dramatic divergence in living standards between the industrial North (or 'West') and a non-industrial, or even de-industrializing, South (or 'Rest'). This nineteenth-century divergence, which had profound economic, military, and geopolitical implications, has been studied in great detail by many economists and historians. Today, this divergence between the 'West' and the 'Rest' is visibly unravelling, as economies in Asia, Latin America and even sub-Saharan Africa converge on the rich economies of Europe and North America. This phenomenon, which is set to define the twenty-first century, both economically and politically, has also been the subject of a considerable amount of research. Less appreciated, however, are the deep historical roots of this convergence process, and in particular of the spread of modern industry to the global periphery. This volume fills this gap by providing a systematic, comparative, historical account of the spread of modern manufacturing beyond its traditional heartland, to Southern and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Asia, Africa, and Latin America, or what we call the poor periphery. It identifies the timing of this convergence, finding that this was fastest in the interwar and post-World War II years, not the more recent 'miracle growth' years. It also identifies which driving forces were common to all periphery countries, and which were not.

Concorrenza e crescita nella storia Europea

January 2017

Chapter

Concorrenza, mercato e crescita in Italia: il lungo periodo

Business & Economics

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

When Britain turned inward: protection and the shift towards empire in interwar Britain

January 2017

Working paper

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

International trade became much less multilateral during the 1930s. Previous studies, looking at aggregate trade flows, have argued that discriminatory trade policies had comparatively little to do with this. Using highly disaggregated information on the UK's imports and trade policies, we find that policy can explain the majority of Britain's shift towards Imperial imports in the 1930s. Trade policy mattered, a lot.

trade policy, interwar period

Brentry

October 2016

Journal article

Critical Quarterly

1916

July 2016

Journal article

Critical Quarterly

47 Language, Communication and Culture, 4702 Cultural Studies, 4705 Literary Studies

The Davos lie

April 2016

Journal article

Critical Quarterly

47 Language, Communication and Culture, 4702 Cultural Studies, 4705 Literary Studies

The Economist and Global History

February 2016

Chapter

The Prospect of Global History

'The Prospect of Global History' offers a new approach to the study of history, looking at the subject across a greater chronological range and seeking perspectives from sources beyond conventional European narratives.

The Great Depression of the 1930s and the world economic crisis after 2008

January 2016

Chapter

A History of the Global Economy: From 1500 to the Present

Economic Impossibilities for Our Grandchildren?

December 2015

Journal article

Economic impossibilities for our grandchildren?

December 2015

Journal article

Journal of the British Academy

Secular stagnation

December 2015

Journal article

Critical Quarterly

47 Language, Communication and Culture, 4702 Cultural Studies, 4705 Literary Studies

The Triangular Trade from a Global Perspective

November 2015

Chapter

The Legacy of Eric Williams Caribbean Scholar and Statesman

This is the first comprehensive historical assessment of the career of Eric Williams, the scholar and statesman.

Political Science

Discussion Papers in Economic and Social History

Economic impossibilities for our grandchildren?

October 2015

Working paper

Discussion Papers in Economic and Social History

Migration and the escape from Malthus

October 2015

Journal article

Critical Quarterly

47 Language, Communication and Culture, 4702 Cultural Studies, 4705 Literary Studies

Economics : economists and the European democratic deficit

July 2015

Journal article

Critical Quarterly

Economists and the European democratic deficit

July 2015

Journal article

Critical Quarterly

Growth in mature economies: The second CEPR-Modena conference

January 2015

Journal article

Geneva Reports on the World Economy

The second CEPR-Modena Conference on Growth in Mature Economies was held on 7-8 November 2013, the second in a series of events focusing on growth in mature economies. The inspiration for this conference series came from Lucrezia Reichlin, Professor of Economics at the London Business School and former CEPR Research Director, who sought to bring together researchers to discuss a key policy issue: how to stimulate growth in mature economies, those that cannot move closer to the technology frontier nor add more capital. The protraction of the Eurozone crisis, ageing populations and a shift in world trade balances make this a crucial research avenue in the long run as well as having more immediate policy implications. This report addresses a wide range of issues, from labourmarket reforms to China’s growth miracle. The Center for Economic Research (RECent) at the University of Modena Reggio Emilia has played a decisive role in the production of this report and conference series. We are indebted to them and the Fondazione Cassa di Risparmio di Modena, for their generous fi nancial support that made the conference possible. We are grateful to Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke and Isabella Rota Baldini for their great efforts in producing this report from the output of the conference, and to Kevin, Lucrezia Reichlin and Graziella Bertocchi for organising the conference itself. And as ever, we also thank Charlie Anderson for his typical skill and speed in producing the report.

From Empire to Europe: Britain in the world economy

October 2014

Scholarly edition

A monthly stock exchange index for Ireland, 1864-1930

August 2014

Journal article

European Review of Economic History

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

The growing dependence of Britain on trade during the Industrial Revolution

March 2014

Working paper

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

Many previous studies of the role of trade during the British Industrial Revolution have found little or no role for trade in explaining British living standards or growth rates. We construct a three-region model of the world in which Britain trades with North America and the rest of the world, and calibrate the model to data from the 1760s and 1850s. We find that while trade had only a small impact on British welfare in the 1760s, it had a very large impact in the 1850s. This contrast is robust to a large range of parameter perturbations. Biased technological change and population growth were key in explaining Britain's growing dependent on trade during the Industrial Revolution.

British Industrial Revolution, trade, specialization, Great Divergence, colonies, growth

Whither the EURO?

March 2014

Journal article

Finance and Development

Introduction:

January 2014

Chapter

The Cambridge History of Capitalism

Coal and the European Industrial Revolution

January 2014

Scholarly edition

We examine the importance of geographical proximity to coal as a factor underpinning comparative European economic development during the Industrial Revolution.  Our analysis exploits geographical variation in city and coalfield locations, alongside temporal variation in the availability of coal-powered technologies, to quantify the effect of coal availability on historic city population sizes.  Since we suspect that our coal measure could be endogenous, we use a geologically derived measure as an instrumental variable: proximity to rock strata from the Carboniferous era.  Consistent with traditional historical accounts of the Industrial Revolution, we find that coal exhibits a strong influence on city population size from 1800 onward.  Counterfactual estimates of city population sizes indicate that our estimated coal effect explains at least 60% of the growth in European city populations from 1750 to 1900.  This result is robust to a number of alternative modelling assumptions regarding missing historical population data, spatially lagged effects, and the exclusion of the United Kingdom from the estimation sample.

Coal, Historical Population, Geography

Coal and the European Industrial Revolution

January 2014

Journal article

Coal, Historical Population, Geography

A monthly stock exchange index for Ireland, 1864–1930

January 2014

Journal article

European Review of Economic History

This paper constructs new monthly Irish stock market price indices for 1864–1930. In addition to a total market index covering 118 equity securities issued by ninety-four companies, sectoral indices are presented for railways, financial services companies, and "other" companies. Nominal equity prices doubled between 1864 and 1898. Between the turn of the century and 1914, prices fell by 25 percent, in contrast to the price increases experienced on the London exchange. Overall, the average annual gain in equity prices over the period was just 0.9 percent. We speculate about the respective roles of Irish politics and international shocks in driving these trends.

Enacting Globalization

January 2014

Chapter

The growing dependence of Britain on trade during the Industrial Revolution

January 2014

Journal article

Scandinavian Economic History Review

Many previous studies of the role of trade during the British Industrial Revolution have found little or no role for trade in explaining British living standards or growth rates. We construct a three-region model of the world in which Britain trades with North America and the Rest of the World, and calibrate the model to data from the 1760s and 1850s. We find that while trade had only a small impact on British welfare in the 1760s, it had a very large impact in the 1850s. This contrast is robust to a large range of parameter perturbations. Biased technological change and population growth were key in explaining Britain's growing dependence on trade during the Industrial Revolution.

growth, trade, Great Divergence, colonies, specialisation, British Industrial Revolution,

The growing dependence of Britain on trade during the Industrial Revolution

January 2014

Journal article

Scandinavian Economic History Review

Many previous studies of the role of trade during the British Industrial Revolution have found little or no role for trade in explaining British living standards or growth rates. We construct a three-region model of the world in which Britain trades with North America and the Rest of the World, and calibrate the model to data from the 1760s and 1850s. We find that while trade had only a small impact on British welfare in the 1760s, it had a very large impact in the 1850s. This contrast is robust to a large range of parameter perturbations. Biased technological change and population growth were key in explaining Britain's growing dependence on trade during the Industrial Revolution. © 2014 Taylor & Francis.

The spread of manufacturing to the poor periphery 1870–2007

January 2014

Journal article

Open Economies Review

This paper documents industrial output growth around the poor periphery (Latin America, the European periphery, the Middle East and North Africa, Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa) between 1870 and 2007. We find that although the roots of rapid peripheral industrialization stretch into the late 19th century, the high point of peripheral industrialization was the 1950–1973 period, which saw widespread import-substituting industrialization. This period was also the high point of unconditional industrial catching up, defined as the tendency of less industrialized countries to post higher per capita manufacturing growth rates, and which occurred between 1920 and 1990.

third world industrialization, history

The spread of manufacturing to the poor periphery 1870–2007

January 2014

Journal article

Open Economies Review

third world industrialization, history

Twentieth Century Growth

January 2014

Scholarly edition

Luddites, the industrial revolution, and the demographic transition

December 2013

Journal article

Journal of Economic Growth

Technological change was unskilled-labor-biased during the early industrial revolution, but is skill-biased today. This implies a rich set of non-monotonic macroeconomic dynamics which are not embedded in extant unified growth models. We present historical evidence and develop a model which can endogenously account for these facts, where factor bias reflects profit-maximizing decisions by innovators. In a setup with directed technological change, and fixed as well as variable costs of education, initial endowments dictate that the early industrial revolution be unskilled-labor-biased. Increasing basic knowledge then causes a growth takeoff, an income-led demand for fewer but more educated children, and a transition to skill-biased technological change in the long run. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Skill bias, Endogenous growth, Directed technological change, Demography, Unified growth theory

A Tale of Two Trilemmas

November 2013

Chapter

Enacting Globalization: Multidisciplinary Perspectives on International Integration

A monthly stock exchange index for Ireland, 1864-1930

October 2013

Scholarly edition

Information on the performance of equities during the latter part of the globalized long nineteenth century is scarce, particularly for smaller European economies such as Ireland.  Using a dataset of over 35,000 price-year observations from the Investor's Monthly Manual, this paper constructs new monthly Irish stock market price indices for the period 1864-1930, encompassing periods of significant economic and political turmoil in Irish history.  In addition to a total market index covering all 118 equity securities issued by 94 companies, sector-specific indices are presented for railways, financial services companies, and miscellaneous industrial and retail companies.  Weighted by market capitalization, nominal equity prices were largely static in the 1860s, before increasing by almost 60% in nominal terms between 1870 and 1878.  Between 1878 and 1879, equity prices fell by one sixth in the space of a year, after which there was a secular rise in equity prices for two decades, with equity prices in 1899 twice what they had been in 1864.  Between the turn of the century and the outbreak of the Great War, though, prices fell by 25%, a pattern that stands in stark contrast to returns on the London exchange, which were greater during 1894-1913 than during the preceding two decades.  The period from 1914 until 1929 saw a number of boom-bust cycles, concurrent with war and other political events affecting Ireland, including its independence movement.  Railway equities, which had trebled between the mid-1860s and the turn of the century, fell sharply during the 1910s and 1920s.  In contrast, financial equity prices - which were just 20% higher in 1920 than in 1864 - rose strongly during the 1920s.  Overall, the average annual gain in equity prices over the period was just 0.9%, well below levels associated with an equity premium puzzle.

E3, G12, N23, N24, Irish stock exchange, Investor's Monthly Manual, long-run stock returns, 19th Century, 20th Century, Ireland

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

A monthly stock exchange index for Ireland, 1864-1930

October 2013

Working paper

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

Information on the performance of equities during the latter part of the globalized long nineteenth century is scarce, particularly for smaller European economies such as Ireland. Using a dataset of over 35,000 price-year observations from the Investor's Monthly Manual, this paper constructs new monthly Irish stock market price indices for the period 1864-1930, encompassing periods of significant economic and political turmoil in Irish history. In addition to a total market index covering all 118 equity securities issued by 94 companies, sector-specific indices are presented for railways, financial services companies, and miscellaneous industrial and retail companies. Weighted by market capitalization, nominal equity prices were largely static in the 1860s, before increasing by almost 60% in nominal terms between 1870 and 1878. Between 1878 and 1879, equity prices fell by one sixth in the space of a year, after which there was a secular rise in equity prices for two decades, with equity prices in 1899 twice what they had been in 1864. Between the turn of the century and the outbreak of the Great War, though, prices fell by 25%, a pattern that stands in stark contrast to returns on the London exchange, which were greater during 1894-1913 than during the preceding two decades. The period from 1914 until 1929 saw a number of boom-bust cycles, concurrent with war and other political events affecting Ireland, including its independence movement. Railway equities, which had trebled between the mid-1860s and the turn of the century, fell sharply during the 1910s and 1920s. In contrast, financial equity prices - which were just 20% higher in 1920 than in 1864 - rose strongly during the 1920s. Overall, the average annual gain in equity prices over the period was just 0.9%, well below levels associated with an equity premium puzzle.

long-run stock returns, 20th century, Ireland, Irish stock exchange, 19th century, Investor's Monthly Manual

A monthly stock exchange index for Ireland, 1864-1930

October 2013

Scholarly edition

E3, G12, N23, N24, Irish stock exchange, Investor's Monthly Manual, long-run stock returns, 19th Century, 20th Century, Ireland

Twentieth Century Growth

September 2013

Scholarly edition

This paper surveys the experience of economic growth in the 20th century with a focus on technological change at the frontier together with issues related to success and failure in catch-up growth.  A detailed account of growth performance based on historical national accounts data is given and is accompanied by a review of growth accounting evidence on the sources of economic growth.  The key features of our analysis of divergence in growth outcomes are an emphasis on the importance of 'directed' technical change, of institutional quality, and of geography.  We provide brief case studies of the experience of individual countries to illustrate these points.

N10. O33, O43, O47, catch-up, divergence, growth accounting, technical change

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

Twentieth century growth

September 2013

Working paper

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

This paper surveys the experience of economic growth in the 20th century with a focus on technological change at the frontier together with issues related to success and failure in catch-up growth. A detailed account of growth performance based on historical national accounts data is given and is accompanied by a review of growth accounting evidence on the sources of economic growth. The key features of our analysis of divergence in growth outcomes are an emphasis on the importance of 'directed' technical change, of institutional quality, and of geography. We provide brief case studies of the experience of individual countries to illustrate these points.

technical change, growth accounting, catch-up, divergence

Political Extremism in the 1920s and 1930s: Do German Lessons Generalize?

June 2013

Journal article

The Journal of Economic History

We examine the impact of the Great Depression on the share of votes for right-wing extremists in elections in the 1920s and 1930s. We confirm the existence of a link between political extremism and economic hard times as captured by growth or contraction of the economy. What mattered was not simply growth at the time of the election, but cumulative growth performance. The impact was greatest in countries with relatively short histories of democracy, with electoral systems that created low hurdles to parliamentary representation, and which had been on the losing side in World War I.

Political Extremism in the 1920s and 1930s: Do German Lessons Generalize?

June 2013

Journal article

Journal of Economic History

Cross of Euros

January 2013

Journal article

Journal of Economic Perspectives

The eurozone currently confronts severe short-run macroeconomic adjustment problems and a deficient institutional architecture that has to be reformed in the longer run. Europe's efforts at economic and monetary union are historically unprecedented. However, the gold standard provides lessons regarding what will and won't work, macroeconomically and politically, in the short run, while US history provides long-run lessons regarding appropriate institutional structures. The latter also suggests that institutional reform only happens at times of great crisis, and that it cannot be taken for granted. The eurozone's leaders may therefore ultimately have to take heed of the lessons of history regarding currency union breakups.

From Empire to Europe: Britain in the World Economy

October 2012

Scholarly edition

This chapter provides a brief introduction to the history of Britain’s engagement with the international economy between 1870 and 2010. It begins by discussing long run trends in the integration of the British economy with the rest of the world over time. Economic historians are typically interested in four types of flows between economies: trade in goods and services; flows of capital; migration flows; and flows of ideas and technology. The last flow is probably the most important one for countries hoping to catch up to the international technological frontier. While this was not the right way to characterise the British economy in 1870, it probably was at various points after World War II. Unfortunately, such flows are also the most difficult to quantify, and so I follow the bulk of the literature in concentrating on trade, capital flows and migration. 

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

From Empire to Europe: Britain in the World economy

October 2012

Working paper

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

How housing slumps end

October 2012

Journal article

Economic Policy

38 Economics, 3801 Applied Economics, 3802 Econometrics, Generic health relevance, 8 Decent Work and Economic Growth

How housing slumps end

October 2012

Journal article

Economic Policy

Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series

The spread of manufacturing to the periphery 1870-2007: eight stylized facts

July 2012

Working paper

Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series

This paper documents industrial output growth around the poor periphery (Latin America, the European periphery, the Middle East and North Africa, Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa) between 1870 and 2007. We provide answers to the following questions. When and where did rapid industrial growth begin in the periphery? When and where did peripheral growth rates exceed those in the industrial core? When was the high-point of peripheral industrial growth? When and where did it become widespread? When was the high-point of peripheral convergence on the core? How variable was the growth experience between countries? And how persistent was peripheral industrial growth?

history, Third World industrialization

Commodity market disintegration in the interwar period

May 2012

Journal article

European Review of Economic History

38 Economics, 3801 Applied Economics, 3802 Econometrics

War, Trade, and Natural Resources: A Historical Perspective

April 2012

Chapter

Right Wing Political Extremism in the Great Depression

February 2012

Journal article

We examine the impact of the Great Depression on the share of votes for right-wing anti-system parties in elections in the 1920s and 1930s.  We confirm the existence of a link between political extremism and economic hard times as captured by growth or contraction of the economy.  What mattered was not simply growth at the time of the election but cumulative growth performance.  But the effect of the Depression on support for right-wing anti-system parties was not equally powerful under all economic, political and social circumstances.  It was greatest in countries with relatively short histories of democracy, with existing extremist parties, and with electoral systems that created low hurdles to parliamentary representation.  Above all, it was greatest where depressed economic conditions were allowed to persist.

N10, D72, Great Depression, Political extremism, Voting

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

Right wing political extremism in the Great Depression

February 2012

Working paper

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

We examine the impact of the Great Depression on the share of votes for right-wing anti-system parties in elections in the 1920s and 1930s. We confirm the existence of a link between political extremism and economic hard times as captured by growth or contraction of the economy. What mattered was not simply growth at the time of the election but cumulative growth performance. But the effect of the Depression on support for right-wing anti-system parties was not equally powerful under all economic, political and social circumstances. It was greatest in countries with relatively short histories of democracy, with existing extremist parties, and with electoral systems that created low hurdles to parliamentary representation. Above all, it was greatest where depressed economic conditions were allowed to persist.

voting, political extremism, Great Depression

Italy and the First Age of Globalization, 1861-1940

February 2012

Scholarly edition

The paper presents trade policy as in line with that of other continental European powers, with a move to moderate levels of tariff protection for politically sensitive sectors such as steel and textiles and clothing, but also in agriculture, with levels of protection falling slightly before the First World War.  Monetary policy was similarly driven by the constraints of capital scarcity, and the political priority attached to reducing the cost of funding government debt.  The most innovative area was probably in industrial policy, where after the 1880s and again in the 1930s in response to severe shocks, quite creative institutional policies were adopted.  In particular financial restructuring was used as an opportunity to reshape the structure of industry.

N23, N24, N73, N74, Comparative economic history, Industrial policy, Monetary, Policy, Monetary regime, Trade policy

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

Italy and the first age of globalization, 1861-1940

February 2012

Working paper

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

The paper presents trade policy as in line with that of other continental European powers, with a move to moderate levels of tariff protection for politically sensitive sectors such as steel and textiles and clothing, but also in agriculture, with levels of protection falling slightly before the First World War. Monetary policy was similarly driven by the constraints of capital scarcity, and the political priority attached to reducing the cost of funding government debt. The most innovative area was probably in industrial policy, where after the 1880s and again in the 1930s in response to severe shocks, quite creative institutional policies were adopted. In particular financial restructuring was used as an opportunity to reshape the structure of industry.

trade policy, policy, monetary regime, industrial policy, comparative economic history, monetary

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

Coping with shocks and shifts: the multilateral trading system in historical perspective

November 2011

Working paper

Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers

This paper provides a historical look at how the multilateral trading system has coped with the challenge of shocks and shifts. By shocks we mean sudden jolts to the world economy in the form of financial crises and deep recessions, or wars and political conflicts. By shifts we mean slow-moving, long-term changes in comparative advantage or shifts in the geopolitical equilibrium that force economies to undergo disruptive and potentially painful adjustments. We conclude that most shocks (financial crises and regional wars) have had relatively little effect on the trade policy, but that shifts pose a greater challenge to the system of open, ultilateral trade.

multilateralism, trade, history

Coping with Shocks and Shifts: The Multilateral Trading System in Historical Perspective

November 2011

Scholarly edition

This paper provides a historical look at how the multilateral trading system has coped with the challenge of shocks and shifts.  By shocks we mean sudden jolts to the world economy in the form of financial crises and deep recessions, or wars and political conflicts.  By shifts we mean slow-moving, long-term changes in comparative advantage or shifts in the geopolitical equilibrium that force economies to undergo disruptive and potentially painful adjustments.  We conclude that most shocks (financial crises and regional wars) have had relatively little effect on the trade policy, but that shifts pose a greater challenge to the system of open, ultilateral trade.

F02, F53, N70, Trade, Multilateralism, History

Coping with Shocks and Shifts: The Multilateral Trading System in Historical Perspective

November 2011

Chapter

This paper provides a historical look at how the multilateral trading system has coped with the challenge of shocks and shifts. By shocks we mean sudden jolts to the world economy in the form of financial crises and deep recessions, or wars and political conflicts. By shifts we mean slow-moving, long-term changes in comparative advantage or shifts in the geopolitical equilibrium that force economies to undergo disruptive and potentially painful adjustments. We conclude that most shocks (financial crises and regional wars) have had relatively little effect on trade policy, but that shifts pose a greater challenge to the system of open, multilateral trade.

Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series

How housing slumps end

October 2011

Working paper

Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series

We construct a simple probit model of the determinants of real house price slump endings. We find that the probability of a house price slump ending is higher, the smaller was the pre-slump house price run-up; the greater has been the cumualtive house price decline; the lower are real mortgage interest rates; and the higher is GDP growth. Slumps are longer, other things being equal, where housing supply is more elastic, but shorter the more developed are financial institutions. For slumps of a given size, shorter sharper slumps are associated with worse macroeconomic performance in the short run, but with better performance in the long run. This suggests that for sufficiently low discount rates, policy makers should not impede the decline in real house prices, and this conclusion is reinforced by the finding that after a certain duration, house price slumps can become self-reinforcing. On the other hand, we also find evidence that during downturns, falling house prices can lead to lower private sector credit flows. Policy makers thus face a delicate balancing act. While they should not intervene to artifically prop up overvalued house prices, they should ensure that their macroeconomic and banking policies are such as to make a bottoming-out more likely. This suggests that they should keep real interest rates low, and ensure that banks are well-capitalised.

house prices, probit, VAR, slumps

Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700

August 2011

Journal article

The Review of Economics and Statistics

Poor countries are more volatile than rich countries, and this volatility impedes their growth. Furthermore, commodity prices are a key source of that volatility. This paper explores price volatility since 1700 to offer three stylized facts: commodity price volatility has not increased over time, commodities have always shown greater price volatility than manufactures, and world market integration breeds less commodity price volatility. Thus, economic isolation is associated with much greater commodity price volatility, while world market integration is associated with less.

The structure of protection and growth in the late nineteenth century

May 2011

Journal article

The Review of Economics and Statistics

Trade and empire

June 2010

Chapter

The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe

From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: Similarities, Differences and Lessons

May 2010

Chapter

Economic Policy 62

4407 Policy and Administration, 32 Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, 3202 Clinical Sciences, 44 Human Society, Depression, Mental Health, Brain Disorders, Mental Illness

From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: similarities, differences and lessons

April 2010

Journal article

Economic Policy

38 Economics, 3802 Econometrics, 3803 Economic Theory

The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe

January 2010

Book

Unlike existing textbooks on the economic history of modern Europe, which offer a country-by-country approach, The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe rethinks Europe's economic history since 1700 as unified and pan-European, with material organised by topic rather than by country. The first volume is centred on the transition to modern economic growth, which first occurred in Britain before spreading to other parts of western Europe by 1870, whilst the second tracks Europe's economic history through three major phases since 1870. Each chapter is written by an international team of authors who cover the three major regions of northern Europe, southern Europe, and central and eastern Europe. The two volumes together provide a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the key themes in modern economic history from trade, urbanisation, economic growth and business cycles to sectoral developments, and population and living standards.

The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe

January 2010

Book

Unlike most existing textbooks on the economic history of modern Europe, which offer a country-by-country approach, The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe rethinks Europe's economic history since 1700 as unified and pan-European, with the material organized by topic rather than by country. This second volume tracks Europe's economic history through three major phases since 1870. The first phase was an age of globalization and of European economic and political dominance that lasted until the First World War. The second, from 1914 to 1945, was one of war, deglobalization, and depression and the third was one of growing integration not only within Europe but also between Europe and the global economy. Leading authors offer comprehensive and accessible introductions to these patterns of globalization and deglobalization as well as to key themes in modern economic history such as economic growth, business cycles, sectoral developments, and population and living standards.

The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe Volume 1: 1700–1870

January 2010

Book

© Cambridge University Press 2010.Unlike most existing textbooks on the economic history of modern Europe, which offer a country-by-country approach, The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe rethinks Europe's economic history since 1700 as unified and pan-European, with the material organised by topic rather than by country. This first volume is centred on the transition to modern economic growth, which first occurred in Britain before spreading to other parts of western Europe by 1870. Each chapter is written by an international team of authors who cover the three major regions of northern Europe, southern Europe, and central and eastern Europe. The volume covers the major themes of modern economic history, including trade; urbanization; aggregate economic growth; the major sectors of agriculture, industry and services; and the development of living standards, including the distribution of income. The quantitative approach makes use of modern economic analysis in a way that is easy for students to understand.

Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium

August 2009

Book

Business & Economics

Challenges of Globalization, Immigration, Social Welfare, Global Governance

August 2009

Scholarly edition

Power and plenty: Trade, war, and the world economy in the second millennium

August 2009

Book

International trade has shaped the modern world, yet until now no single book has been available for both economists and general readers that traces the history of the international economy from its earliest beginnings to the present day.Power and Plentyfills this gap, providing the first full account of world trade and development over the course of the last millennium.Ronald Findlay and Kevin O'Rourke examine the successive waves of globalization and "deglobalization" that have occurred during the past thousand years, looking closely at the technological and political causes behind these long-term trends. They show how the expansion and contraction of the world economy has been directly tied to the two-way interplay of trade and geopolitics, and how war and peace have been critical determinants of international trade over the very long run. The story they tell is sweeping in scope, one that links the emergence of the Western economies with economic and political developments throughout Eurasia centuries ago. Drawing extensively upon empirical evidence and informing their systematic analysis with insights from contemporary economic theory, Findlay and O'Rourke demonstrate the close interrelationships of trade and warfare, the mutual interdependence of the world's different regions, and the crucial role these factors have played in explaining modern economic growth.Power and Plentyis a must-read for anyone seeking to understand the origins of today's international economy, the forces that continue to shape it, and the economic and political challenges confronting policymakers in the twenty-first century. © 2007 by Princeton University Press. All Rights Reserved.

Summaries of Doctoral Dissertations

June 2009

Journal article

The Journal of Economic History

3801 Applied Economics, 35 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services, 38 Economics, 3502 Banking, Finance and Investment, 50 Philosophy and Religious Studies, 5002 History and Philosophy Of Specific Fields

Did Vasco da Gama matter for European markets?

January 2009

Journal article

Economic History Review: a journal of economic and social history

The Structure of Protection and Growth in the Late Nineteenth Century

January 2009

Conference paper

JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY

Luddites and the Demographic Transition

November 2008

Journal article

Luddites and the Demographic Transition

November 2008

Journal article

demography, endogenous growth, unified growth theory

Made in America? The New World, the Old, and the Industrial Revolution

June 2008

Journal article

Made in America? The New World, the Old, and the Industrial Revolution

April 2008

Journal article

American Economic Review

38 Economics, 35 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services

Globalization, Growth and Distribution in Spain 1500-1913

January 2008

Scholarly edition

The endogenous growth literature has explored the transition from a Malthusian world where real wages, living standards and labor productivity are all linked to factor endowments, to one where (endogenous) productivity change embedded in modern industrial growth breaks that link. Recently, economic historians have presented evidence from England showing that the dramatic reversal in distributional trends --from a steep secular fall in wage-land rent ratios before 1800 to a steep secular rise thereafter – must be explained both by industrial revolutionary growth forces and by global forces that opened up the English economy to international trade. This paper explores whether and how the relationship was different for Spain, a country which had relatively poor productivity growth in agriculture and low living standards prior to 1800, was a late-comer to industrialization afterwards, and adopted very restrictive policies towards imports for much of the 19th century. The failure of Spanish wage-rental ratios to undergo a sustained rise after 1840 can be attributed to the delayed fall in relative agricultural prices (due to those protective policies) and to the decline in Spanish manufacturing productivity after 1898.

F1, N7, O4

Property rights, politics and innovation: creamery diffusion in pre-1914 Ireland

December 2007

Journal article

European Review of Economic History

Property rights, politics and innovation: creamery diffusion in pre-1914 Ireland

December 2007

Journal article

European Review of Economic History

38 Economics, 3801 Applied Economics

November 2007

Journal article

Journal of International Economics

Culture, Conflict and Cooperation: Irish Dairying Before the Great War

October 2007

Journal article

The Economic Journal

38 Economics, 3801 Applied Economics

War and welfare: Britain, France, and the United States 1807–14

October 2007

Scholarly edition

38 Economics, 3801 Applied Economics, 3802 Econometrics

The New Comparative Economic History

June 2007

Book

The innovative approach to economic history known as the New Comparative Economic History represents a distinct change in the way that many economic historians view their role, do their work, and interact with the broader economics profession. The New Comparative Economic History reflects a belief that economic processes can best be understood by systematically comparing experiences across time, regions, and, above all, countries. It is motivated by current questions that are not nation specific--the sources of economic growth, the importance of institutions, and the impact of globalization--and focuses on long-run trends rather than short-run ups and downs in economic activity. The essays in this volume offer a New Economic Comparative History perspective on a range of topics and are written in honor of Jeffrey G. Williamson, the most distinguished and influential scholar in the field. The contributors, prominent American and European economists, consider such topics as migration, education, and wage convergence; democracy and protectionism in the nineteenth century; trade and immigration policies in labor-scarce economies; and the effect of institutions on European productivity and jobs.

N0, Jeffrey G. Williamson, migration, wage convergence, protectionism

The New Comparative Economic History: Essays in Honor of Jeffrey G. Williamson

June 2007

Book

N30, N40, N70

Democracy and Protectionism

May 2007

Scholarly edition

38 Economics, 3801 Applied Economics, 3802 Econometrics

Trade, Knowledge and the Industrial Revolution

May 2007

Journal article

Endogenous growth, demography, trade

Trade, Knowledge, and the Industrial Revolution

April 2007

Scholarly edition

Technological change was unskilled-labor-biased during the early Industrial Revolution of the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, but is skill-biased today. This fact is not embedded in extant unified growth models. We develop a model of the transition to sustained economic growth which can endogenously account for both these facts, by allowing the factor bias of technological innovations to reflect the profitmaximising decisions of innovators. Endowments dictated that the initial stages of the Industrial Revolution be unskilled-labor biased. The transition to skill-biased technological change was due to a growth in “Baconian knowledge” and international trade. Simulations show that the model does a good job of tracking reality, at least until the mass education reforms of the late nineteenth century.

Endogenous growth, Demography, Trade

Globalization, Growth and Distribution in Spain 1500-1913

April 2007

Scholarly edition

The endogenous growth literature has explored the transition from a Malthusian world where real wages, living standards and labor productivity are all linked to factor endowments, to one where (endogenous) productivity change embedded in modern industrial growth breaks that link. Recently, economic historians have presented evidence from England showing that the dramatic reversal in distributional trends – from a steep secular fall in wage-land rent ratios before 1800 to a steep secular rise thereafter – must be explained both by industrial revolutionary growth forces and by global forces that opened up the English economy to international trade. This paper explores whether and how the relationship was different for Spain, a country which had relatively poor productivity growth in agriculture and low living standards prior to 1800, was a late-comer to industrialization afterwards, and adopted very restrictive policies towards imports for much of the 19th century. The failure of Spanish wage-rental ratios to undergo a sustained rise after 1840 can be attributed to the delayed fall in relative agricultural prices (due to those protective policies) and to the decline in Spanish manufacturing productivity after 1898.

Growth, distribution, globalization, Spain

Risk, Government andd Globalization: International Survey Evidence

April 2007

Scholarly edition

This paper uses international survey data to document two stylized facts. First, risk aversion is associated with anti-trade attitudes. Second, this effect is smaller in countries with greater levels of government expenditure. The paper thus provides evidence for the microeconomic underpinnings of the argument associated with Ruggie (1982), Rodrik (1998) and others that government spending can bolster support for globalization by reducing the risk associated with it in the minds of voters.

Trade attitudes, risk

Trade, Knowledge, and the Industrial Revolution

April 2007

Journal article

IIIS Discussion Paper

Endogenous growth, Demography, Trade

Trade, Knowledge, and the Industrial Revolution

April 2007

Journal article

Introduction to Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium

January 2007

Chapter

International trade has shaped the modern world, yet until now no single book has been available for both economists and general readers that traces the history of the international economy from its earliest beginnings to the present day. Power and Plenty fills this gap, providing the first full account of world trade and development over the course of the last millennium. Ronald Findlay and Kevin O'Rourke examine the successive waves of globalization and "deglobalization" that have occurred during the past thousand years, looking closely at the technological and political causes behind these long-term trends. They show how the expansion and contraction of the world economy has been directly tied to the two-way interplay of trade and geopolitics, and how war and peace have been critical determinants of international trade over the very long run. The story they tell is sweeping in scope, one that links the emergence of the Western economies with economic and political developments throughout Eurasia centuries ago. Drawing extensively upon empirical evidence and informing their systematic analysis with insights from contemporary economic theory, Findlay and O'Rourke demonstrate the close interrelationships of trade and warfare, the mutual interdependence of the world's different regions, and the crucial role these factors have played in explaining modern economic growth. Power and Plenty is a must-read for anyone seeking to understand the origins of today's international economy, the forces that continue to shape it, and the economic and political challenges confronting policymakers in the twenty-first century.

N00, power, trade, war, peace, world economy, technology, geopolitics, development, growth

Preface to Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium

January 2007

Chapter

International trade has shaped the modern world, yet until now no single book has been available for both economists and general readers that traces the history of the international economy from its earliest beginnings to the present day. Power and Plenty fills this gap, providing the first full account of world trade and development over the course of the last millennium. Ronald Findlay and Kevin O'Rourke examine the successive waves of globalization and "deglobalization" that have occurred during the past thousand years, looking closely at the technological and political causes behind these long-term trends. They show how the expansion and contraction of the world economy has been directly tied to the two-way interplay of trade and geopolitics, and how war and peace have been critical determinants of international trade over the very long run. The story they tell is sweeping in scope, one that links the emergence of the Western economies with economic and political developments throughout Eurasia centuries ago. Drawing extensively upon empirical evidence and informing their systematic analysis with insights from contemporary economic theory, Findlay and O'Rourke demonstrate the close interrelationships of trade and warfare, the mutual interdependence of the world's different regions, and the crucial role these factors have played in explaining modern economic growth. Power and Plenty is a must-read for anyone seeking to understand the origins of today's international economy, the forces that continue to shape it, and the economic and political challenges confronting policymakers in the twenty-first century.

N00, power, trade, war, peace, world economy, technology, geopolitics, development, growth

The determinants of individual attitudes towards immigration

December 2006

Journal article

European Journal of Political Economy

4408 Political Science, 44 Human Society, Basic Behavioral and Social Science, Behavioral and Social Science

Measuring Protection: A Cautionary Tale

July 2006

Chapter

Classical Trade Protectionism 1815-1914

Long-held views on modern trade policies have been challenged by the introduction of recent theoretical developments in international economics and in measurement techniques brought about in the 1960s and 70s. One question in particular has attracted attention and has contributed to the bringing to light of a number of previously ignored measurement and interpretation problems: the assessment of French and British nineteenth century trade policies. This noteworthy volume examines the theoretical and practical problems associated with the assessment and measurement of the direct impact of tariffs, prohibitions and quotas on domestic prices, output structure and competitiveness. The contributors also examine the direct and long-run consequences of protectionist measures on particular economies, utilizing evidence from in-depth investigations of trade statistics as well as ‘best practice’ statistical techniques such as effective protection, elasticity of demand and revealed comparative advantage.

Tariffs and growth in the late nineteenth century

July 2006

Chapter

Classical Trade Protectionism 1815-1914

Heckscher-Ohlin Theory and Individual Attitudes Toward Globalization

June 2006

Scholarly edition

38 Economics, 3803 Economic Theory

Democracy and Protectionism

May 2006

Journal article

Did Vasco da Gama Matter for European Markets?Testing Frederick Lane's Hypotheses Fifty Years Later

April 2006

Scholarly edition

In his seminal publications between the 1930s and 1960s, Frederick Lane offered three hypotheses regarding the impact of the Voyages of Discovery that have guided debate ever since. First, pepper and other spice prices did not rise in European markets in the century before the 1490s, and thus could not have ‘pulled in’ the oceanic explorations by their rising scarcity. Second, Portuguese circumnavigation of Africa did not lower European spice prices across the 16th century, implying that the discovery of the Cape route had no permanent effect on Euro-Asian market integration. Third, 15th century Venetian spice markets were already well integrated with those in Iberia and northern Europe, implying that Portugal could not have had an intra-European market integrating influence in the 16th century. Lane developed these influential hypotheses by relying heavily on nominal spice prices from Venice and the Levant. This paper revisits Lane’s hypotheses by using instead relative spice prices, that is, accounting for inflation. It also draws on evidence from Iberia and northern Europe. In addition, it explores European market integration before and after 1503, the year when da Gama returned from his financially successful second voyage. Lane’s three hypotheses are rejected: the impact of the Portuguese was profound on all fronts. We conclude by using a simple model of monopoly and oligopoly to decompose the sources of the Cape route’s impact on European markets.

N.14, N7

The worldwide economic impact of the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars, 1793–1815

March 2006

Journal article

Journal of Global History

4303 Historical Studies, 43 History, Heritage and Archaeology

Late nineteenth-century Denmark in an Irish mirror: Land tenure, homogeneity, and the roots of Danish success

January 2006

Chapter

National Identity and the Varieties of Capitalism: The Danish Experience

Incentives, technology and the shift to year-round dairying in late nineteenth-century Denmark -super-1

August 2005

Journal article

The Economic History Review

Incentives, technology and the shift to year‐round dairying in late nineteenth‐century Denmark1

August 2005

Journal article

The Economic History Review

38 Economics, 3801 Applied Economics

From Malthus to Ohlin: Trade, Industrialisation and Distribution Since 1500

March 2005

Journal article

Journal of Economic Growth

38 Economics, 3801 Applied Economics, 3802 Econometrics

The International Trading System, Globalization and History

January 2005

Book

The focus of this collection is the history of the international trading system over the past two centuries. Volume I includes an overview of the subject area as well as sections considering the effects of war and peace, the late nineteenth-century backlash, and contemporary views of interwar disintegration. Volume II looks at the issues of hegemony, non-discrimination and reciprocity. It also covers customs unions, preferential trading agreements, trade wars and trade rivalry.

Flux migratoires : économie politique de la migration et enjeux empiriques

September 2004

Journal article

Revue d économie du développement

Once more: When did globalisation begin?

April 2004

Journal article

European Review of Economic History

When did globalisation begin?

April 2004

Journal article

European Review of Economic History

Some world historians attach globalisation ‘big bang’ significance to 1492 and 1498. Such scholars are on the side of Adam Smith who believed that these were the two most important events in recorded history. Other world historians insist that globalisation stretches back even earlier. There is a third view which argues that the world economy was fragmented and completely de-globalised before the early nineteenth century. None of these three competing views has distinguished explicitly between trade expansion driven by booming import demand or export supply, and trade expansion driven by the integration of markets between trading economies. This article makes that distinction, and shows that there is no evidence supporting the view that the world economy was globally integrated prior to the 1490s; there is also no evidence supporting the view that this decade had the trading impact that world historians assign to it; but there is abundant evidence supporting the view that a very big globalisation bang took place in the 1820s.

Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series

Cities and specialization: evidence from South Asia

January 2003

Working paper

Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series

Theories of city formation typically revert around agglomeration externalities driven by returns to specialization. Using survey data from Nepal, we test these theories by examining the relationship between proximity to urban centers and the organization of labor. We show that wards located in and near cities have more diversified and more market oriented activities. This suggests returns to specialization harnessed through the market. Wage work, work away from home, and unemployment are more prevalent in and around cities. These effects are felt up to four hours of travel time from large cities. We also find evidence of a weak relationship between city size and firm size. Urban specialization, however, does not extend to household chores. Urbanization is associated with lower female labor market participation and with specialization of women in market-related activities or strictly home-based chores.

urbanization, household chores, spatial specialization

Commodity market integration, 1500-2000

January 2003

Chapter

Globalization in Historical Perspective

Commercial products

Long-distance trade: long-distance trade between 1750 and 1914

January 2003

Chapter

Oxford Encyclopedia of Economic History

The end of globalization: Lessons from the great depression.

January 2003

Journal article

JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE

Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series

Game harmony as a predictor of cooperation in 2 x 2 games

September 2002

Working paper

Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series

This paper presents an experimental test of the relationship between game harmony and cooperation in 2 x 2 games. Game harmony measures describe how harmonious (non-conflictual) or disharmonious (conflictual) the interests of players are, as embodied in the payoffs: coordination games and constant-sum games are examples of games of perfect harmony and disharmony, respectively, with most games being somewhere in the middle. In our experiment we consider a variety of 2 x 2 games, including amongst others the Prisoner's Dilemma, the Stag-Hunt, the Chicken, a coordination game and three variants of trust games. We find that simple game harmony measures can explain 2/3 (or more) or the variance in mean cooperation rate across these games.

trust games, game harmony, cooperation, 2 x 2 games, social dilemmas

AFTER COLUMBUS: EXPLAINING EUROPE'S OVERSEAS TRADE BOOM, 1500 1800

June 2002

Journal article

The Journal of Economic History

AFTER COLUMBUS: EXPLAINING EUROPE'S OVERSEAS TRADE BOOM, 1500–1800

June 2002

Journal article

The Journal of Economic History

38 Economics, 3802 Econometrics

When did globalisation begin?

April 2002

Journal article

European Review of Economic History

50 Philosophy and Religious Studies, 5002 History and Philosophy Of Specific Fields

Globalization and Inequality: Historical Trends

March 2002

Journal article

Aussenwirtschaft

After Columbus: Explaining the global trade boom, 1500-1800

January 2002

Conference paper

JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY

Europe and the causes of globalization, 1790-2000

January 2002

Chapter

From Europeanization of the Globe to the Globalization of Europe

Globalization and inequality: Historical trends

January 2002

Conference paper

ANNUAL WORLD BANK CONFERENCE ON DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS 2001/2002

The Heckscher-Ohlin model between 1400 and 2000: when it explained factor price convergence, when it did not, and why

January 2002

Chapter

Bertil Ohlin: A Centennial Celebration 1899-1999

Convergence (Economics)

Commodity Market Integration, 1500-2000

November 2001

Journal article

Globalization and History: The Evolution of a Nineteenth-Century Atlantic Economy

April 2001

Book

Globalization is not a new phenomenon; nor is it irreversible. In Globalization and History, Kevin O'Rourke and Jeffrey Williamson present a coherent picture of trade, migration, and international capital flows in the Atlantic economy in the century prior to 1914--the first great globalization boom. The book's originality lies in its application of the tools of open-economy economics to this critical historical period--differentiating it from most previous work, which has been based on closed-economy or single-sector models. The authors also keep a close eye on globalization debates of the 1990s, using history to inform the present and vice versa.

F41, N73, N71, globalization, Atlantic economy, open-economy economics

What Determines Attitudes Towards Protection? Some Cross-Country Evidence

January 2001

Chapter

Brookings Trade Forum

British Trade Policy in the 19th Century: A Review Article

November 2000

Journal article

European Journal of Political Economy

Irish inflation: appropriate policy responses

September 2000

Journal article

Irish Banking Review

Much Ado about Nothing? Italian Trade Policy in the Late 19th Century

June 2000

Chapter

The Mediterranean Response to Globalization before 1950

The studies in this exceptional volume explore the challenges and opportunities presented by globalization events prior to 1950, and identify how countries around the Mediterranean responded to them. In addition to comparative assessments of regional performance, the volume offers detailed case studies of Spain, Italy, the Balkans, Turkey, Israel and Egypt.

International trade

A Social Accounting Matrix for Italy, 1911

April 2000

Journal article

Rivista di Storia Economica

Tariffs and growth in the late 19th century

April 2000

Journal article

The Economic Journal

The paper estimates the correlation between tariffs and economic growth in the late 19th century, in the context of three types of growth equation: unconditional convergence equations; conditional convergence equations; and factor accumulation models. It does so for a panel of ten countries between 1875 and 1914. Tariffs were positively correlated with growth in these countries during this period.

Tariffs and Growth in the Late 19th Century.

April 2000

Journal article

The Economic Journal

Globalization in Historical Perspective

January 2000

Scholarly edition

4303 Historical Studies, 4408 Political Science, 43 History, Heritage and Archaeology, 44 Human Society

Globalization in Historical Perspective

January 2000

Chapter

Globalization and Unemployment

Irish inflation : appropriate policy responses

January 2000

Scholarly edition

This article argues that the cost increasing, supply side approach cannot adequately explain the current Irish inflation. It suggests that the correct model is one that is based on excess demand fuelled by continuing economic growth and demand-side shocks, including nominal exchange rate depreciation and lax budgetary policy. Evidence is presented to suggest that inflationary pressures have been building up in the economy for longer than is generally appreciated. As for appropriate policy responses, these include nominal wage increases above those agreed under the PPF but exclude tax cuts which, at the time of writing, seem likely to emerge in the December 2000 Budget.

Inflation (Finance)--Ireland, Ireland--Economic policy

Irish inflation : appropriate policy responses.

January 2000

Scholarly edition

Inflation (Finance)--Ireland, Ireland--Economic policy, X-PublishedAs-Type: article X-PublishedAs-Journal: Irish Banking Review X-PublishedAs-Year: 2000 X-PublishedAs-Volume: X-PublishedAs-Pages: 33-47

Living standards and growth

January 2000

Scholarly edition

Cost and standard of living--Ireland, Economic development--Ireland

Living Standards and Growth

January 2000

Chapter

The Economy of Ireland: Policy and Performance of a European Region

Ireland is a small, open economy, heavily integrated with the British economy as well as an enthusiastic and fully active member of the European Union. How it is influenced by and responds to these circumstances is central to an understanding of its economy. This book provides an account of the main features, performance and associated policy issues of the economy of Ireland in the 1990s. The book opens with an extensive chapter outlining the historical development of the Irish economy from the seventeenth century to the present day.

Living Standards and Growth.

January 2000

Scholarly edition

Why did the West grow so rapidly over the last 500 years, while much of therest of the world stagnated? And why several countries, especially in East Asia, grown so fast over the last half-century? If we can understand these growth experiences, and identify the forces which made them possible, we will be a lot closer to understanding what it is that poor countries today must do is they are to escape poverty. More modestly, we will be better able to judge Ireland's growth performance since World War II, and think about the reasons why it underperformed for so long, before succeeding so spectacularly in the 1990s.

I31, D63, O40, O10, ECONOMIC GROWTH, SOCIAL WELFARE, POVERTY

O'Hagan, J.W. (ed.). The economy of Ireland : policy and performance of a European region.

January 2000

Scholarly edition

Cost and standard of living--Ireland, Economic development--Ireland, X-PublishedAs-Type: chapter

Were trade and factor mobility substitutes in history?

September 1999

Scholarly edition

3801 Applied Economics, 3802 Econometrics, 38 Economics, 43 History, Heritage and Archaeology, 4303 Historical Studies

Were Trade and Factor Mobility Substitutes in History?

September 1999

Chapter

Migration: The Controversies and the Evidence

Trade theorists have come to understand that their theory is ambiguous on the question: Are trade and factor flows substitutes?

Capital movements

Culture, Politics and Innovation: Creamery Diffusion in late 19th Century Denmark and Ireland.

January 1999

Scholarly edition

This paper tries to be the first step in a systematic comparison of economic growth in Denmark and Ireland between 1870 and 1939. Section 2 ofthis paper sets the scene by discussing broader trends of living standards and agricultural productivity. Section 3 outlines the developments in the dairying industry which is so disturbed contemporary Irishmen. Section 4 surveys the large contemporary and historical literature dealing with the causes of relative Irish failure. Section 5 uses evidence on the diffuson of creamery cooperatives across Irish counties to asses some of these arguments.

Q16, O32, N53, N54, ECONOMIC HISTORY, AGRICULTURE, INNOVATIONS

Economic Integration and Convergence: and Historical Perspective

January 1999

Journal article

Journal of Economic Integration

Theory is ambiguous as to how globalization influences the relative performances of rich and poor countries. This paper surveys some recent literature on the historical links between international commodity and factor market integration and convergence. Focussing on the late 19th century, a period both of globalization and convergence, it shows that trade had and important impact on factor prices in some countries, just as Heckscher and Ohlin would have predicted. Migration was however a more important force for convergence during this period, while international capital flows led to both convergence and divergence. The analysis suggests that more attention should be paid to open economy forces when discussing convergence.

F02, Economic, Integration

The Heckscher-Ohlin Model Between 1400 and 2000: When it Explained Factor Price Convergence, Ehen it Did not, and Why.

January 1999

Scholarly edition

This is a paper about intercontinental trade, since factor proportions differ far more between continents than within. Long distance intercontinental trade was also the economic event which motivated the theoretical work of Bertil Ohlin.

F10, N70, ECONOMIC HISTORY, INTERNATIONAL TRADE

Culture, Malthus, and Irish Demographic History

September 1998

Journal article

The Journal of Economic History

Monetary Data and Proxy GDP Estimates: Ireland 1840–1921

August 1998

Journal article

Irish Economic and Social History

Monetary Data and Proxy GDP Estimates: Ireland 1840–1921

August 1998

Scholarly edition

4303 Historical Studies, 43 History, Heritage and Archaeology

The European Grain Invasion, 1870–1913

December 1997

Journal article

The Journal of Economic History

The article quantifies the impact of cheap grain on the European economy in the late nineteenth century. Falling transport costs led to dramatic declines in Anglo-American grain price gaps, but price convergence was less impressive between the U.S. and other European economies, and within Europe. Cheaper grain meant lower rents throughout Europe, and protection boosted rents, but the magnitudes involved differed between countries. Similarly, cheap grain increased real wages in Britain, but lowered them elsewhere. The grain invasion implied different shocks across countries, and this partly explains the varying trade policies pursued in Europe during this period.

Around the European Periphery 1870 1913: Globalization, Schooling and Growth

August 1997

Journal article

European Review of Economic History

On average, the poor European periphery converged on the rich industrial core in the four or five decades prior to the First World War. Some, like the three Scandinavian economies, used industrialization to achieve a spectacular convergence on the leaders, especially in real wages and living standards. Some, like Ireland, seemed to do it without industrialization. Some, like Italy, underwent a less spectacular catch-up, and it was limited to the industrializing North. Some, like Iberia, actually fell back. What accounts for this variety? What role did trade and tariff policy play? What about emigration and capital flows? What about schooling? We offer a tentative assessment of these contending explanations and conclude that globalization was by far the dominant force accounting for convergence (and divergence) around the periphery. Some exploited it well, and some badly.

Measuring Protection: A Cautionary Tale

June 1997

Journal article

Journal of Development Economics

This paper comments on a theoretically based index of protection recently developed by Anderson and Neary. The index must be calculated within the context of a specific CGE model; Anderson and Neary propose a generic model, and have found that the index is robust to changes in the elasticities embedded within that model. Is the index also robust to changes in the specification of the model? The paper identifies one historical instance where the index is extremely sensitive to the specification of the model's demand side. There are important methodological lessons to be learnt from this example. © 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

Migration as Disaster Relief: Lessons From the Great Irish Famine

April 1997

Journal article

European Review of Economic History

Mass emigration was one key feature of the Great Irish Famine which distinguishes it from today's famines. By bringing famine victims to overseas food supplies, it undoubtedly saved many lives. Poverty traps prevented those most in need from availing of this form of relief, however. Cross-county data show that the ratio of emigration to deaths was higher in richer than in poorer counties. Another key feature of the Famine emigration was that it was irreversible. The Famine thus had a permanent impact on Ireland's population in a transitory fashion. Famine emigration spurred post-Famine emigration by eliminating poverty traps; the result was a sustained decline in the Irish population, and a convergence of living standards both within Ireland and between Ireland and the rest of the world.

After the famine: Irish agriculture, 1850-1914 - Turner,M

January 1997

Journal article

ECONOMIC HISTORY REVIEW

The European Grain Invasion 1870-1913.

January 1997

Scholarly edition

This paper is primarily concerned with the effects of cheap grain on European wages, profits and rents. it brings a quantitative focus to bear on the question, just as Knick Harley (1978, 1980, 1986) and others have examined the quantitative implications of the grain invasion for the new world. The paper polots the dimensions of the grain invasion in several European countries, and explores the extente to which protection succeded in insulating economies from this international commodity market shock.

F13 N53, EUROPE, AGRICULTURE, PROTECTIONISM, TARIFFS

Reply to Ljungberg

September 1996

Journal article

Scandinavian Economic History Review

We are grateful to Jonas Ljungberg for his courteous and informative response to our pair of articles recently published in this Review.1 We will argue that Ljungberg has misunderstood our intention on one central point. Since other readers may share this misunderstanding, we are happy to set the record straight. We also take this opportunity to stress a second central point which characterizes our work in this Review.

Factor Price Convergence in the Late Nineteenth Century

August 1996

Journal article

International Economic Review

We examine a dramatic historical episode of factor price convergence in the late nineteenth century. Our focus is convergence between Old World and New, and the analysis centers on land and labor. Wage-rental ratios boomed in the Old World and collapsed in the New, moving the resource-rich, labor-scarce New World closer to the resource-scarce, labor-abundant Old World. We use econometrics and simulations to identify pro-convergence forces which include commodity price convergence, factor accumulation, and factor-saving biases. The results confirm that open-economy characteristics and international market integration are important sources of convergence.

Irish economic growth, 1945–88

April 1996

Chapter

Economic Growth in Europe since 1945

Crafts, N.F.R. and Toniolo, G. (eds.). Economic growth in Europe since 1945.

January 1996

Scholarly edition

Ireland--Economic conditions, Ireland--Economic policy, X-PublishedAs-Type: chapter

Irish economic growth since 1945

January 1996

Scholarly edition

Ireland--Economic conditions, Ireland--Economic policy

Erratum

December 1995

Journal article

The Journal of Economic History

Erratum

December 1995

Journal article

The Journal of Economic History

Emigration and Living Standards in Ireland Since the Famine.

November 1995

Journal article

Journal of Population Economics

"Ireland experienced dramatic levels of emigration in the century following the Famine of 1845-1849. The paper surveys the recent cliometric literature on post-Famine emigration and its effects on Irish living standards. The conclusions are that the Famine played a significant role in unleashing the subsequent emigration; and that emigration was crucial for the impressive increase in Irish living standards which took place during the next 100 years."

Starvation, Environment, Conservation of Natural Resources, Demography, Population Dynamics, Emigration and Immigration, Economics, Developed Countries, Socioeconomic Factors, Food Supply, Population, Europe, Ireland

An economist looks at Catholic social teaching

September 1995

Journal article

Doctrine and Life

Conscience and the Economist

September 1995

Journal article

Doctrine and Life

Democracy and International Trade: Britain, France, and the United States, 1860-1990.

September 1995

Journal article

The Economic Journal

38 Economics, 3801 Applied Economics, 3802 Econometrics, 3803 Economic Theory

Education, globalization and catch-up: Scandinavia in the Swedish mirror

September 1995

Journal article

Scandinavian Economic History Review

38 Economics, 3802 Econometrics

The Costs of International Economic Disintegration: Ireland in the 1930s

September 1995

Journal article

Research in Economic History

Open economy forces and late nineteenth century swedish catch-up. A quantitative accounting

May 1995

Journal article

Scandinavian Economic History Review

Sweden recorded very high growth rates between 1870 and 1913. In 1870 Swedish real wages were only 52 percent as high as in British, and 30 percent as high as in the USA. By 1910, Swedish real wages were 5 percent higher than British real wages, and 59 percent as high as US real wages. This paper estimates that over 60 percent of this impressive Swedish catch-up on Britain was due to open economy forces: International labour and capital mobility, and international trade. Almost 90 percent of Swedens’s catch-up on America was due to these same open economy forces. Swedish history thus suggests that the economic convergence literature should pay more attention to Wicksell, Heckscher and Ohlin. © 1995 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Economic Growth: Performance and Explanations

January 1995

Chapter

The Economy of Ireland: Policy and Performance of a Small European Country

Irish economic growth

January 1995

Scholarly edition

Ireland--Economic conditions, Economic development--Ireland

Open Economy Forces and Late 19th Century Scandinavian Catch-Up.

January 1995

Scholarly edition

HISTORICAL ANALYSIS

O'Hagan, J. W. (ed.). The economy of Ireland : policy and performance of a small European country.

January 1995

Scholarly edition

Ireland--Economic conditions, Economic development--Ireland, X-PublishedAs-Type: chapter

Late Nineteenth-Century Anglo-American Factor-Price Convergence: Were Heckscher and Ohlin Right?

December 1994

Journal article

The Journal of Economic History

Due primarily to transport improvements, commodity prices in Britain and the United States tended to converge between 1870 and 1913. Heckscher and Ohlin, writing in 1919 and 1924, thought that these events should have contributed to factor-price convergence. It turns out that Heckscher and Ohlin were right: a significant share of the Anglo-American real-wage convergence was due to commodity-price convergence. It appears that this late nineteenth-century episode was the dramatic start of world-commodity and factor-market integration that continues today.

Mass Migration, Commodity Market Integration, and Real Wage Convergence The Late Nineteenth Century Atlantic Economy

September 1994

Chapter

Migration and the International Labor Market 1850-1939

International economic integration

Industrial Policy, Employment Policy and the Non-Traded Sector

September 1994

Journal article

Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland

This paper will critically examine the assumptions on which their [Irish policy makers] policies have been based, and suggest a more constructive role for government intervention. There are three quite distinct sections. The first section will outline the traditional theoretical basis for Irish government policy, and ask whether it makes sense.. The second section argues that the non-traded sector is the key to a country's competitiveness. The third section will investigate the effects on the Irish economy of opening up sectors, hitherto nontraded (due to government restrictions), to foreign competition. In particular, the employment effects of such a move are examined, using a computable general equilibrium model developed by the author, in collaboration with Kevin Denny and Aoife Hannan of UCD

The Development of Industrial Society in Ireland. Edited by J. H. Goldthorpe and C. T. Whelan. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1992. Pp. vi, 470. $60.00.

September 1994

Journal article

The Journal of Economic History

The Development of Industrial Society in Ireland. Edited by J. H. Goldthorpe and C. T. Whelan. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1992. Pp. vi, 470. $60.00.

September 1994

Journal article

The Journal of Economic History

Did Labor Flow Uphill? International Migration and Wage Rates in 20th Century Ireland

July 1994

Chapter

Labor Market Evolution: The Economic History of Market Integration, Wage Flexibility and the Employment Relation

How have modern labour markets developed? Both labour economists and economic historians agree that it is necessary to look at labour markets in their historical context. Labour Market Evolution does just this. The contributors examine the operation and development of labour markets in Western Europe and North America since 1500. They address the key questions in this complicated process using new quantitative evidence. First, how closely connected were geographically distant labour markets? Second, how flexible were markets in the past - did wages change in response to demand shocks? Did workers move across space and occupations in response to cyclical or seasonal conditions. Third, were relationships between employees and employers short-term or long-term? Why did relationships change, and what were the implications for the flexibility and integration of markets? In examining these factors, this volume draws on modern labour economic theory and up-to-date quantitative techniques to show how current traditions and systems have evolved.

Did the Great Irish Famine Matter?

July 1994

Chapter

The Economic Development of Ireland Since 1870

In The Economic Development of Ireland since 1870 Cormac O'Grada presents a carefully chosen set of articles and papers which assess the economic history of Ireland from the after effects of the Great Famine to protectionism in the 1930s and Ireland's membership of the European Monetary System in the 1980s. The set includes a comprehensive introduction specially written by the editor which surveys the literature and indicates key themes and trends.

Business & Economics

Property Transactions in Ireland, 1708–1988: An Introduction*

June 1994

Journal article

Irish Economic and Social History

4303 Historical Studies, 43 History, Heritage and Archaeology

The Economic Impact of the Famine in the Short and Long Run.

May 1994

Journal article

The American Economic Review

The Impact of Emigration on Real Wages in Ireland, 1850-1914

January 1994

Chapter

Migration and the International Labor Market 1850-1939

The Repeal of the Corn Laws and Irish Emigration

January 1994

Journal article

Explorations in Economic History

If the corn laws had not been repealed, grain prices would have been higher throughout the United Kingdom than they actually were. This in turn would have implied higher agricultural employment in Ireland. The paper estimates counter-factual "No Repeal" price series for grains in the United Kingdom and then uses a model of Irish agricultural labor demand to calculate how much higher Irish agricultural employment in the 1870s would have been in the absence of repeal. The paper finds that repeal did significantly reduce Irish agricultural employment. © 1994 Academic Press. All rights reserved.

Industrial Development and Irish National Identity, 1922–1939. By Mary E. Daly. Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press, 1992. Pp. xv, 201. $34.94.

December 1993

Journal article

The Journal of Economic History

Industrial Development and Irish National Identity, 1922–1939. By Mary E. Daly. Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press, 1992. Pp. xv, 201. $34.94.

December 1993

Journal article

The Journal of Economic History

Land, Labor and the Wage-Rental Ratio Factor Price Convergence in the Late Ninteenth Century.

January 1993

Scholarly edition

prices, labour, economic theory

Mass Migration, Commodity Market Integration, and Real Wage Convergence: The Late Nineteenth Century Atlantic Economy.

January 1993

Scholarly edition

migration, wages

Why Ireland Emigrated: a Positive Theory of Factor Flows

April 1992

Journal article

Oxford Economic Papers

Why did labor flow from Ireland to Britain in the nineteenth century when capital could have moved in the opposite direction? This paper addresses this question in a general two-country trade theoretic framework, linking it with the contemporary debate about the relative quality of emigrants and those who stayed behind. Dividing the population into shirkers and nonshirkers, it can be shown (given certain assumptions) that all nonshirkers migrate to the capital abundant country and that capital may flow in the same direction as labor. A switch from cottage industry to the factory system may have initiated such factor flows. Copyright 1992 by Royal Economic Society.

Were Heckscher and Olin right? : putting history back into the factor-price equalization

January 1992

Scholarly edition

Due primarily to transport improvements, commodity prices in Britain and America tended to equalize 1870-1913. This commodity price equalization was not simply manifested by the great New World grain invasion of Europe. Rather, it can be documented for intermediate primary products and manufactures as well. Heckscher and, Ohlin, writing in 1919 and 1924, thought that these events should have contributed to factor price equalization. Based on Williamson's research reported elsewhere, Anglo-American real wages did converge over this period, and it was part of a general convergence between the Old and New World. This paper applies the venerable Heckscher-Ohlin trade model to the late 19th century Anglo-American experience and finds that they were right: at least half of the real wage convergence observed can be assigned to commodity price equalization. Furthermore, these events also had profound influences on relative land and capital scarcities. It appears that this late 19th century episode was the dramatic start of world commodity and factor market integration that is still ongoing today.

Heckscher-Ohlin principle, Great Britain--Commerce--United States, United States--Commerce--Great Britain, Commodity exchanges

Were Heckscher and Olin Right? Putting History Back into the Factor-Price Equalization Theorem.

January 1992

Scholarly edition

commodities, trade, manufacturing industries, economic theory

Agricultural Change and Rural Depopulation: Ireland, 1845–1876

June 1991

Journal article

The Journal of Economic History

Agricultural Change and Rural Depopulation: Ireland, 1845–1876

June 1991

Journal article

The Journal of Economic History

Burn Everything British but their Coal: the Anglo-Irish Economic War of the 1930s

June 1991

Journal article

The Journal of Economic History

AN ECONOMIC-HISTORY OF AGRICULTURE IN NORTHERN-IRELAND - ARMSTRONG,DL

January 1991

Journal article

AGRICULTURAL HISTORY

Burn Everything British but Their Coal: The Anglo-Irish Economic War of the 1930s

January 1991

Journal article

The Journal of Economic History

The Anglo-Irish Economic War of 1932 to 1938 was eventually settled on terms highly favorable to the Irish. This article uses a computational general equilibrium model of the interwar Irish economy to argue that the welfare costs of the war were not so great as has been thought, and that the dispute helped de Valera electorally. These considerations help explain the eventual Irish “victory” in the Economic War. © 1991, The Economic History Association. All rights reserved.

COMMERCIAL-POLICY AND THE CURRENT ACCOUNT - A MUSSA-NEARY APPROACH

January 1991

Journal article

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL REVIEW

DID THE GREAT IRISH FAMINE MATTER

January 1991

Journal article

JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY

Rural Depopulation in a Small Open Economy: Ireland 1856-1876

January 1991

Journal article

Explorations in Economic History

The paper asks whether Irish emigration between 1856 and 1876 was due to labor being pulled out of Ireland by higher wages abroad, or to labor being pushed off the land as a result of price shocks in international commodity markets favoring pasture over tillage. A computational general equilibrium model of the Irish agricultural sector is constructed and subjected to the wage and price shocks experienced by the economy over the period. The model suggests that all the rural depopulation occurring during this period was due to wage shocks (i.e., foreign labor demand), and none to commodity price shocks. © 1991.

THE 2-SECTOR GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM-MODEL - A NEW APPROACH - DINWIDDY,CL, TEAL,FJ

January 1991

Journal article

JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE

The non-traded and service sectors: misconceptions and issues

January 1991

Chapter

The Economy of Ireland

The Footwear Industry in Ireland, 1922–1973. By Jon Press. Dublin: Irish Academic Press, 1989. Pp. 229. $39.50.

September 1990

Journal article

The Journal of Economic History

The Footwear Industry in Ireland, 1922–1973. By Jon Press. Dublin: Irish Academic Press, 1989. Pp. 229. $39.50.

September 1990

Journal article

The Journal of Economic History

International Migration and Wage rates in Twentieth Century Ireland.

January 1990

Scholarly edition

migration, labour market, wages

THE COSTS OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DISINTEGRATION: IRELAND IN THE 1930'S

January 1990

Scholarly edition

trade barriers, social welfare, international trade, labour market

A POSITIVE THEORY OF FACTOR FLOWS.

January 1989

Scholarly edition

economic theory, emigrants, human resources, capital, labour

DID THE GREAT IRISH FAMINE MATTER?.

January 1989

Scholarly edition

employment, agriculture, population, prices

Tariffs and the current account with short-run capital specificity

January 1989

Journal article

Economics Letters

Permanent tariff reductions are shown to result in a deterioration of the current account, even under intertemporal optimising by consumers. This is due to the assumption of short-run fixity and long-run mobility of capital. © 1989.

THE CAUSES OF DEPOPULATION IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY: IRELAND 1856-1876.

January 1989

Scholarly edition

population, open economy, emigration, labour, demand, prices, agriculture

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Professor Kevin Hjortshøj O&#039;Rourke: List of publications

The empire project: trade policy in interwar Canada

Should history change the way we think about populism?

The last free traders? Interwar trade policy in the Netherlands and Netherlands East Indies

Coal and the European Industrial Revolution

Four great Asian trade collapses

The impact of interwar protection: evidence from India

Economic history and contemporary challenges to globalization

Trade, Technology, and the Great Divergence

Economic history and contemporary challenges to globalization

The anatomy of a trade collapse: the UK, 1929–1933

Varieties of Backlash

When Britain turned inward: The impact of Interwar British protection

The anatomy of a trade collapse: the UK, 1929-33

Two great trade collapses: the interwar period and great recession compared

The anatomy of a trade collapse: The UK, 1929-33

Independent Ireland in comparative perspective

Thoughts on Catalonia

Growth, import dependence, and war

Growth, Import Dependence, and War

Independent Ireland in comparative perspective

Two Great Trade Collapses: The Interwar Period & Great Recession Compared

Measuring the Spread of Modern Manufacturing to the Poor Periphery

When Britain turned inward: Protection and the shift towards Empire in interwar Britain

The Spread of Modern Industry to the Periphery since 1870

Concorrenza e crescita nella storia Europea

When Britain turned inward: protection and the shift towards empire in interwar Britain

Brentry

1916

The Davos lie

The Economist and Global History

The Great Depression of the 1930s and the world economic crisis after 2008

Economic Impossibilities for Our Grandchildren?

Economic impossibilities for our grandchildren?

Secular stagnation

The Triangular Trade from a Global Perspective

Economic impossibilities for our grandchildren?

Migration and the escape from Malthus

Economics : economists and the European democratic deficit

Economists and the European democratic deficit

Growth in mature economies: The second CEPR-Modena conference

From Empire to Europe: Britain in the world economy

A monthly stock exchange index for Ireland, 1864-1930

The growing dependence of Britain on trade during the Industrial Revolution

Whither the EURO?

Introduction:

Coal and the European Industrial Revolution

Coal and the European Industrial Revolution

A monthly stock exchange index for Ireland, 1864–1930

Enacting Globalization

The growing dependence of Britain on trade during the Industrial Revolution

The growing dependence of Britain on trade during the Industrial Revolution

The spread of manufacturing to the poor periphery 1870–2007

The spread of manufacturing to the poor periphery 1870–2007

Twentieth Century Growth

Luddites, the industrial revolution, and the demographic transition

A Tale of Two Trilemmas

A monthly stock exchange index for Ireland, 1864-1930

A monthly stock exchange index for Ireland, 1864-1930

A monthly stock exchange index for Ireland, 1864-1930

Twentieth Century Growth

Twentieth century growth

Political Extremism in the 1920s and 1930s: Do German Lessons Generalize?

Political Extremism in the 1920s and 1930s: Do German Lessons Generalize?

Cross of Euros

From Empire to Europe: Britain in the World Economy

From Empire to Europe: Britain in the World economy

How housing slumps end

How housing slumps end

The spread of manufacturing to the periphery 1870-2007: eight stylized facts

Commodity market disintegration in the interwar period

War, Trade, and Natural Resources: A Historical Perspective

Right Wing Political Extremism in the Great Depression

Right wing political extremism in the Great Depression

Italy and the First Age of Globalization, 1861-1940

Italy and the first age of globalization, 1861-1940

Coping with shocks and shifts: the multilateral trading system in historical perspective

Coping with Shocks and Shifts: The Multilateral Trading System in Historical Perspective

Coping with Shocks and Shifts: The Multilateral Trading System in Historical Perspective

How housing slumps end

Professor Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke: List of publications