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In the globalizing international economy of the
late nineteenth century, the United States developed into the world's
leading manufacturing power by the First World War. This development
was somewhat paradoxical since a notable effect of the transportation
improvements that underlay globalization was effectively to increase
America's relative resource abundance, which simple trade theory
would predict would increase specialization on raw material exports.
At the same time, however, transportation improvements created a
continental economy. The resource abundance and the continental
scope of America, combined with a protective tariff on manufactured
imports, in turn shaped American technological development. By the
twentieth century it was apparent that the special conditions of
America had led American firms to develop new and exceptionally
productive technologies. In this process, Americans developed mass
production factories and the managerial firm which dominate advanced
manufacturing through the twentieth century. Globalization also
dominated monetary economics, the principal feature of macroeconomics
until the end of our period. Before the First World War, money essentially
meant the gold standard, although the first years of our period
involved America's return to gold after the inflationary greenback
financing of the Civil War. The First World War, with its accompanying
explosion of government debt and inflation, severely disrupted the
international gold standard, although the effect on America appeared
to be small. However, the currently prevailing view of the Great
Depression attributes it primarily to monetary contraction. In the
view of many blame for this contractions lies with the gold standard.
Topic 1: The Industrial Tariff, Political Economy and American
Industrialization
It is tempting to equate economic growth with industrialization.
Through most of its history the United States protected manufactured
goods with a high tariff. The industries that grew up in America,
particularly cotton textiles and iron, were heavily protected. During
the antebellum period this had strong regional effects, benefiting
the North and hurting the South.
- Peter Temin, "Free Land and Federalism: A Synoptic View
of American Economic History", Journal of Interdisciplinary
History, 21 (Winter 1991). [In readings for Topic 1].
Analysis of the issue is complicated, however, by America's strong
position in the international cotton market that conveyed market
power and makes it necessary to consider optimal tariff issues.
That is that the tariff will decrease American demand for imports
and thus the supply of cotton in the process forcing up the price
of cotton on world markets. I have written on this topic:
- C. Knick Harley, "The antebellum American tariff: food
exports and manufacturing", EEcH 29 (Oct. 1992).
The results of these simulations depend on elasticities that can
only be guessed at from industry studies that present rather mixed
conclusion:
- C. Knick Harley, "Competitiveness of the antebellum American
cotton textile industry", JEcH. 52 (Sept. 1992).
- Douglas Irwin and Peter Temin, "The antebellum tariff and
cotton textiles revisited" and Harley "The antebellum
tariff" JEcH 61 (June 2002), pp. 777-805.
Earlier work suggested that the tariff had little role in the
growth of cotton output:
- R. B. Zevin, "The Growth of Cotton Production after 1815",
in R. Fogel and S. Engerman, eds., The Reinterpretation
of American Economic History
A leading study of the international iron industry indicates that
the United States was a high cost producer and the tariff seems
to have been necessary for the industry's profitability:
- R. Allen, "International Competition in Iron and Steel,
1850-1913", JEcH 39:4 (Dec. 1979).
Finally, it is useful to examine an attempt to explain the political
process of tariff creation in:
- J. J. Pincus, "Pressure Groups and the Pattern of Tariffs",
JPE 83:4 (Aug. 1975).
Topic 2: American Technology and Mass Production: Superiority
to Britain?
The Americans developed precocity in certain industries that evolved
modern mass production technology. Many twentieth century manufacturing
processes involved mass production using special process machines,
unskilled labour and standardized products - the assembly line.
This type of manufacturing first became common in America in the
nineteenth century despite Britain's economic leadership at the
time. American mass production began at Government armouries and
spread to other metal working industries and culminated in Ford's
moving assembly line.
Why did mass production technology develop initially in America?
A classic view of (the HabaKkuk/Rothbarth hypothesis) postulated
that high wages led Americans to adopt more capital intensive methods
of production. This choice led to a path of learning by doing and
American engineering leadership.
- E. Rothbarth (1946) "Causes of the Superior Efficiency
of U.S.A. Industry Compared with British Industry", Economic
Journal 56, 383-90.
- J. H. Habakkuk (1962) American and British technology in
the nineteenth century: the search for labour-saving inventions.
However, Peter Temin pointed out a logical problem when the issues
is approached in economists' terms. Spend some time understanding
the economic logic of this paper. It should serve as a focus for
our discussion:
- Peter Temin, "Labour Scarcity and the Problem of American
Industrial Efficiency in the 1850's", JEcH 26 (Sept.
1966).
An argument that the history is more complex than Temin's simple
model followed:
- Edward Ames and Nathan Rosenberg, "The Enfield Arsenal
in Theory and History", Economic Journal 78 (Dec.
1968).
- John James and Jonathan Skinner (1985), "The resolution
of the labor scarcity paradox", JECH 45: 513-40.
As this literature makes clear, the economics of the choice of
techniques is not trivial. The America's resource abundance certainly
contributed to in its industrial success:
- Gavin Wright, "The Origins of American Industrial Success",
AER 80 (Sept. 1990).
With this theoretical framework, it is useful to explore the history
of American technology a bit more closely:
- Nathan Rosenberg, Exploring the Black Box, cf. Ch.
6 "Why in America".
- David A. Hounshell, From the American System to Mass Production,
1800-1932.
Finally, some of my work has been on this subject and I cannot
resist adding:
- C. Knick Harley, "Skilled Labor and the Choice of Technique
in Edwardian Britain", EEcH 11:4 (Summer 1974).
- C. Knick Harley, "Substitution for prerequisites: endogenous
institutions and comparative economic history", in R. Sylla
and G. Toniolo, eds., Patterns of European Industrialization.
Many of the themes are further explored in
- S.N. Broadberry (1997), The productivity race: British manufacturing
in international perspective, 1850-1990.
Topic 3: The rise of big business in America and the management
revolution
The rise of big business went along with mass production in America's
move to international manufacturing leadership. A recent summary
of the rise of large corporations is:
- Louis Galambos, "The U.S. Corporate Economy in the Twentieth
Century", in S. Engerman and R. Gallman, eds.,
The Cambridge Economic History of the United States: Vol.
III The Twentieth Century, pp. 927-47.
The classical discussion of this issue is:
- Alfred D. Chandler, Jr. (1977), The visible hand: the managerial
revolution in American business.
- Alfred D. Chandler, Jr. (1990), Scale and scope : the dynamics
of industrial capitalism.
A short summary is:
- Alfred Chandler, "The United States: Seedbed of Managerial
Capitalism", in A. Chandler and H. Daems, eds.,
Managerial Hierarchies: Comparative Perspectives on the Rise
of the Modern Industrial Enterprise, pp. 9-40.
A view of the emergence of big business somewhat at variance with
Chandler's that stresses exploitation of market power is:
- Naomi Lamoreaux, The great merger movement in American business,
1895-1904, cf. Ch. 1 "Introduction" and Ch. 5
"What changed?"
Automobiles are often seen as the archetypical twentieth century
big business. The economics of the rise of the large automobile
firms is discussed in:
- Richard Langlois and Paul Robertson, "Explaining Vertical
Integration: Lessons from the American Automobile Industry,"
JEcH 49 (June 1989).
Topic 4: Labour markets and mass production
Reorganization of labour markets accompanied mass production and
the large firm. Gavin Wright provides a valuable introduction in
- Gavin Wright, "Labor History and Labor Economics",
in A. J. Field, ed., The Future of Economic History.
During the nineteenth century, Americans developed and adopted
machine oriented production methods. The success of these techniques
seems to have required changes in labour management that recall
Wright's suggestion that there may have been multiple labour market
equilibria. The automobile industry provides the best illustration:
- Wayne Lewchuk, "Fordist Technology and Britain: The Diffusion
of Labour Speed-up", in David Jeremy, ed., The Transfer
of International Technology: Europe, Japan and the USA in the
Twentieth Century.
- Lewchuk, Wayne. (1987) American technology and the British
vehicle industry
William Lazonick has argued that American management's command
of labour and industrial organization supported technological
change in the American textile industry that the British industry
failed to emulate:
- William Lazonick (1981), "Production relations, labor
productivity and the choice of techniques: British and U.S. cotton
spinning", JEcH 41: 491-516.
- William Lazonick (1983), "Industrial organization and
technological change: the decline of the British Cotton Industry",
Business History Review 57: 195-236.
This view has been challenged:
- Gary Saxonhouse and Gavin Wright (1984), "New Evidence
on the Stubborn English Mule and the Cotton Industry, 1878-1920",
EcHR 37: 507-519.
- Gary Saxonhouse and Gavin Wright (2003), "The Global Transition
from Craft to Semi-Skilled Technology: Mules vs. Rings, 1879-1933".
Paper presented at the Economic History Association Conference,
Sept.
- Timothy Leunig (2001) "New answers to old questions: explaining
the slow adoption of ring spinning in Lancashire, 1880-1913",
JEcH 61: 439-66.
- Timothy Leunig (2003) "A British industrial success: productivity
in the Lancashire and New England cotton spinning industries a
century ago", EcHR 56: 90-117.
More generally on labour effort and managerial behaviour see
- Gregory Clark, "Authority and Efficiency: The Labor Market
and the Managerial Revolution in the late Nineteenth Century",
JEcH 44 (Dec. 1984).
Topic 5: American Technological Change as a Network Process
New Growth theory has drawn economists' attention beyond exploration
of the effects of exogenous technological change to externalities
that endogenize technology. Economic historians have explored such
topics for some time. An important early work was
- Paul A. David (1975), Technical choice, innovation and
economic growth: essays on American and British experience in
the nineteenth century. Particularly chapter 1.
- Nathan Rosenberg (1963). 'Technological Change in the Machine
Tool Industry", JEcH 23, 414-43 explored the role
of the machine tool industry in diffusing and refining mass-production
technology.
Gavin Wright has made a number of important contributions:
- Wright, Gavin (1997) "Towards a More Historical Approach
to Technological Change", Economic Journal 107,
1560-66.
- Wright, Gavin (1999) "Can a Nation Learn? American Technology
as a Network Phenomenon", in Naomi R. Lamoreaux, Daniel
M. G. Raff, and Peter Temin, eds. Learning by doing in markets,
firms, and countries. (Chicago: Chicago). 295-326.
- David, Paul and Gavin Wright (1997) "Increasing Returns
and the Genesis of American Resource Abundance", Industrial
and Corporate Change 6, 203-45.
Paul David and Moses Abramovitz explored another aspect of interrelatedness
in the American growth in a series of articles:
- Abramovitz, Moses and Paul A. David (1973) "Reinterpreting
Economic Growth: Parables and Reality", American Economic
Review 63, 428-39.
- David, Paul A. (1977), "Invention and Accumulation in
America's Economic Growth: A Nineteenth Century Parable",
in Karl Bruner and Allan H. Meltzer, International Organization,
National Policies and Economic Development, 179-227. (Also
Supplement to the Journal of Monetary Economics,
3)
- Abramovitz, Moses and Paul A. David (1996), "Convergence
and Deferred Catch-up: Productivity Leadership and the Waning
of American Exceptionalism", in Ralph Landau, Timothy Taylor
and Gavin Wright, eds., The mosaic of economic growth
(Stanford: Stanford), 21-62.
I have recently looked at industrialization in America (and Britain)
in the contest of new growth theory in an overview article:
- Knick Harley (2003) "Growth Theory and Industrial Revolutions
in Britain and America", Canadian Journal of Economics
36: 809-831
Topic 6: Money, Domestic and International, before the
First World War
American monetary arrangements, which had both domestic and international
aspects, have been central to several aspects of American growth
and were of central importance in the Great Depression. Somewhat
surprisingly monetary arrangements, particularly the issue of the
"free" coinage of silver, were central issues in American
politics in the late nineteenth century. Examination of the issues
provides an insight into the monetary issues.
- Milton Friedman, "The Crime of 1873", JPE
98 (1990), pp. 1159-94, provides a look at the issues involved
in a bimetallic standard and the post Civil War shift to a gold
standard. The Civil War inflation required a subsequent deflation
to restore the gold standard.
- James Kindahl, "Economic Factors in Specie Resumption:
The United States 1865-1879", in R. Fogel and S. Engerman,
eds., The Reinterpretation of American Economic History,
pp. 468-79.
An introduction to the political issues surrounding Populism and
Free Silver is:
- Hugh Rockoff, "The 'Wizard of Oz' as a Monetary Allegory",
JPE 98 (1990), pp. 739-60.
American monetary politics took place with in an international
gold standard system whose importance became clear when it failed
in the early 1930s. An introduction is:
- Barry Eichengreen, Golden Fetters, Chapter 2: "The
Classical Gold Standard in Interwar Perspective".
An influential article that emphasized the monetary aspects of
the balance of payments under the gold standard is:
- D. N. McCloskey and R. Zecher, "How the gold standard
worked, 1880-1913", in J. Frenkel and H. Johnson, The
Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments.
The Great Depression of the 1930 demonstrated that the monetary
system's ability to adjust to shocks was a key to a successful
macro-economy. I have a small contribution:
- C. Knick Harley, "The Classical Gold Standard's Adjustment
to Shocks: American Railroads and British Investment in the 1880s",
in Jaime Reis, ed., International Monetary Systems in Historical
Perspective.
The monetary history of the crisis of 1907 is also worth examining.
Here we see how American dealt with a monetary crisis with a temporary
suspension of specie payments and the clearinghouses that playing
a key role:
- Gary Gorton, "Clearinghouses and the Origins of Central
Banking in the United States", JEcH 45 (June 1985).
- Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz, A Monetary History of the
United States, 1867-1960, particularly pp. 156-73.
New data and consideration of the behaviour of the American monetary
system over the very long run appears in:
- Lawrence Officer (2002), "The U.S. specie standard, 1792-1932:
some monetarist arithmetic, EEcH 39: 113-153,
Topic 7: An Unstable World Economy and the Coming of the
Great Depression
The Great Depression in the United States was probably the greatest
economic event of this century. We still do not understand it completely
although there is now something of a consensus that the gold standard
in the context of the post first world war world was a major causal
factor. An economic historian's overview of the depression is provided
by
- Jeremy Atack and Peter Passell, A New Economic View of American
History, Ch. 21: "The Great Depression: Explaining the Contraction".
The belief that capitalism had failed and new leadership provided
the only answer was widespread among liberal thinkers until quite
recently. This view well captured in narrative, if not analytical
way in:
- Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., The Age of Roosevelt, Vol.
1. The Crisis of the Old Order. All of Part IV, Ch. 19-26
are well worth reading quickly. See particularly Ch. 19-21 and
24-5.
The First World War severely disrupted the international economy
of the late Nineteenth century. This disruption is seen by many,
particularly European, commentators as a major cause of the Great
Depression of the 1930s. A good summary of this view is:
- Barry Eichengreen, "The origins and nature of the Great
Slump revisited", EcHR 45 (May 1992).
- Barry Eichengreen, Golden Fetters, Chapter 8, "Cracks
in the Facade" and Chapter 9, "Crisis and Opportunity".
A similar but somewhat different perspective is provided by:
- Peter Temin, Lessons from the Great Depression, Lecture
1, "The Spoils of War".
Topic 8: Monetary Failure and the Great Depression
There can be no doubt that the American monetary system performed
disastrously in the early 1930s. The failure of the Federal Reserve
to act as a lender of last reserve to a fractional reserve monetary
system is indicted as the factor that changed a recession into the
Great Depression.
- Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz, A Monetary History of
the United States, 1867-1960, pp. 299-332; 391-9; 407-19.
Presenters should read all of Chapter 7, "The Great Contraction".
- Ben Bernanke, "Non-monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis
in the Propagation of the Great Depression", AER
73 (1983), pp. 257-76 discusses channels by which financial crisis
effect output.
Peter Temin provided a contradictory view that sees an autonomous
shift in the consumption function:
- Peter Temin (1976), Did monetary forces cause the Great
Depression?
- Peter Temin (1981), "Notes on the Causes of the Great
Depression" in K. Brunner, ed., The Great Depression
Revisited,108-24.
The 1981 Brunner volume mentioned above provides some valuable
interpretation. A balanced but not convinced review of the monetarist
position is provided in:
- Robert J. Gordon and James A. Wilcox (1981) "Monetarist
Interpretations of the Great Depression: An Evaluation and Critique",
in Karl Brunner, ed., The Great Depression Revisited,
49-99.
Similarly useful discussion from a monetarist point of view are:
- Allan H. Meltzer (1981) "Comments on 'Monetary Interpretations
of the Great Depression' ", in Brunner, Great Depression
Revisited, 148-164.
- Karl Brunner (1981) "Epilogue: Understanding the Great
Depression", in Brunner, Great Depression Revisited,
319-58
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